Ike Remains A Large Category Two

HOUSTON, September 11, 2008 - As of 10:00 p.m. CDT Thursday, Hurricane Ike was located near 26.3 north and 90.4 west. This is about 340 miles southeast of Galveston, Texas. Ike is traveling west-northwestward at 12 mph with maximum sustained winds of 100 mph. Ike is a very large Category 2 hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend 115 miles outward from Ike's center. Tropical storm-force winds extend outward up to 265 miles. The central pressure as reported by hurricane hunter aircraft has risen and is now at 956 mb, or 28.23 inches.

A hurricane warning is in effect from Morgan City, Louisiana to Baffin Bay, Texas.

The circulation of Ike is causing water levels to rise 1-3 feet across the entire Gulf Coast from South Florida to Texas. Parts of southern Louisiana will have a 3- to 5-foot water rise with tropical storm conditions through tonight and tomorrow. From 2-4 inches of rain is expected along the immediate coastline of Louisiana overnight. Seas in the central Gulf of Mexico are around 20 to 30 feet, while seas in the western Gulf of Mexico are 10-15 feet.

Ike is still being steered by a strong upper-level high that extends across the northern Gulf of Mexico and the Deep South. This ridge should remain in place into Friday and keep Ike on a west-northwesterly course through tonight. Conditions will be somewhat favorable for intensification over the next 24 hours as water temperatures along Ike's projected track are at least 82 degrees and wind shear remains relatively weak. Ike is a large hurricane with a small central core, and strong winds extend far away from the eye. Ike's pressure remains very low for a Category 2 hurricane. This is due to the fact Ike is a very large storm with energy spread out over a huge distance. If these winds can contract, Ike should increase to Category 3 strength some time late tonight or tomorrow. Since intensity forecasting is very difficult, we will continue to monitor the pressure and wind within this big hurricane. Because Ike is such a large storm, tropical storm and hurricane conditions will occur well away from the actual center upon landfall. This will be especially true north and east of where the center comes ashore.

The best estimate right now is for landfall somewhere between Matagorda Bay and Galveston, Texas. Nonetheless, a devastating storm surge is expected for more than 100 miles east of landfall. East of the landfall a storm surge up to 12 to 20 feet can occur with some of the back bays perhaps having a higher storm surge. One should not focus on an exact landfall location at this time, and all interests along the western Gulf Coast should monitor the progress of Ike closely.

After landfall, Ike will begin to move more north and then northeast as it gets caught up in the westerlies. A rather rapid increase in forward speed likely. By Sunday morning the remnant tropical rainstorm center should be over northwest Arkansas and move quickly northeast through the middle Mississippi Valley during the day Sunday.

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