Latest Storm Track and Wind Speed Probabilities

LIBERTY, September 11, 2008 - Below is the latest storm track from the National Weather Service issued at 10:00 PM Thursday night.

HURRICANE IKE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  43
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL092008
2100 UTC THU SEP 11 2008

AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.0
NORTH...LONGITUDE 89.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 85 KTS
...100 MPH...160 KM/HR.

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME


I.  MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE

CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT.  X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS
THAN 1 PERCENT.


- - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -

VALID TIME   06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE
FORECAST HOUR   12      24      36      48      72      96     120
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED       X       X       1       2      55      NA      NA
TROP DEPRESSION  X       X       3       7      37      NA      NA
TROPICAL STORM   1       3      23      63       8      NA      NA
HURRICANE       99      97      73      29       1      NA      NA
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1       25      19      22      19       X      NA      NA
HUR CAT 2       56      45      18       3       X      NA      NA
HUR CAT 3       17      30      25       5       X      NA      NA
HUR CAT 4        1       3       8       2       X      NA      NA
HUR CAT 5        X       X       1       X       X      NA      NA
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND   90KT    95KT   105KT    65KT    30KT    NA      NA


II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.


- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -

FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM
TIME       18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO
06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE

FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION       KT

PORT ARTHUR TX 34  6  36(42)  37(79)   7(86)   1(87)   X(87)   X(87)
PORT ARTHUR TX 50  X  12(12)  36(48)   9(57)   2(59)   X(59)   X(59)
PORT ARTHUR TX 64  X   1( 1)  19(20)   8(28)   2(30)   X(30)   X(30)

GALVESTON TX   34  6  39(45)  40(85)   6(91)   1(92)   X(92)   X(92)
GALVESTON TX   50  X  17(17)  49(66)  10(76)   1(77)   X(77)   X(77)
GALVESTON TX   64  X   2( 2)  33(35)  10(45)   2(47)   X(47)   X(47)

HOUSTON TX     34  2  26(28)  45(73)  13(86)   1(87)   X(87)   X(87)
HOUSTON TX     50  X   4( 4)  43(47)  15(62)   2(64)   X(64)   X(64)
HOUSTON TX     64  X   1( 1)  14(15)  14(29)   2(31)   X(31)   X(31)

AUSTIN TX      34  X   4( 4)  17(21)  14(35)   2(37)   X(37)   X(37)
AUSTIN TX      50  X   X( X)   3( 3)   6( 9)   1(10)   X(10)   X(10)
AUSTIN TX      64  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)

SAN ANTONIO TX 34  X   2( 2)  14(16)   7(23)   2(25)   X(25)   X(25)
SAN ANTONIO TX 50  X   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)

FREEPORT TX    34  5  34(39)  40(79)   8(87)   1(88)   X(88)   X(88)
FREEPORT TX    50  X  12(12)  45(57)  12(69)   1(70)   X(70)   X(70)
FREEPORT TX    64  X   2( 2)  23(25)  11(36)   1(37)   X(37)   X(37)

Give us your Feedback about this story!